Game Result Predictions
Friday, March 23
The Resid and Elo Predictions calculates each team's final score, margin of victory (spread), and probability of winning the game.
Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Texas State (30-28-1) 0 4 +4.0 36% ✔ 4 +4.0 27% ✔
Coastal Carolina (43-19) 8 8 -4.0 64% 8 -4.0 73%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Appalachian State (18-36) 0 3 +2.0 42% ✔ 1 +4.5 25% ✔
Georgia Southern (30-26) 2 5 -2.0 58% 6 -4.5 75%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
South Alabama (32-25) 2 7 -1.0 54% ✘ 7 -2.5 65% ✘
Georgia State (25-29) 7 6 +1.0 46% 4 +2.5 35%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
UTA (22-35) 1 4 +2.0 42% ✔ 3 +2.5 35% ✔
Little Rock (28-28) 5 6 -2.0 58% 6 -2.5 65%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Troy (42-21) 6 6 -2.0 58% ✔ 4 +0.5 51% ✘
Louisiana (34-25) 2 4 +2.0 42% 5 -0.5 49%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Arkansas State (20-32) 0 6 +1.0 46% ✔ 6 -0.5 54% ✘
ULM (23-31) 2 7 -1.0 54% 5 +0.5 46%

Friday, March 23 Results
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 83%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 50%
Overall Results (851 games)
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 71%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 68%

The goal for the Game Result Predictions is to determine winners at a rate greater than 70%.